Sport Trading Card Market Analysis for ALT

Sports trading cards can be considered an alternative investment opportunity as the market for these cards can be relatively stable (especially following the pandemic) and can offer a potential for high returns. The value of a card is often determined by its rarity, condition, and the popularity of the athlete featured on the card. Some high-value cards have sold for millions of dollars. However, it’s important to note that the market for sports cards can be highly speculative and illiquid, and like any other investment, it carries risk. It’s also essential to conduct research and due diligence before investing in sports cards, as well as to have a long-term horizon.

Overview

This project is part of a collabarative tech sprint among Data science, UX design and Web Development students challenging to create digital solutions for one of BrainStation’s industry partners - ALT(a leading sports trading card marketplace).

Visit the Project GitHub repository to view the full project.

Why eBay USA?

The USA trading card market is arguably the most prominent and active market there is, and this project focuses on the largest lister in the USA region, eBay, to analyze and compile relevant insights and make recommendations for ALT to provide context and motivation for improvement and future development.

About ALT

ALT is a sports trading card marketplace that allows users to buy, sell, and trade cards from various sports like football, basketball, baseball and hockey. It also offers a community for enthusiasts to connect and access historical card pricing and trends.

Data Collection

Current PSA graded Sports Trading Card listings on eBay USA were collected using Apify eBay scrapper. Apify is a web scraping and automation platform that serves as an unofficial eBay API to extract data from eBay. It allows us to specify the product category, keywords, and other parameters to search for, and then it will extract data such as product name, price, description, and image URLs from the search results. Data was collected on 10th December 2022 and represents the most up-to-date “Buy now” listings on eBay and was exported to multiple CSV files.

| Variable name   | Description                                    |
|-----------------|------------------------------------------------|
| price           | Price of the card in USD                       |
| title           | The name of the card displayed on eBay         |
| url             | URL to the listing on eBay                     |
| whyToBuy/0      | Reason to by the card                          |
| item_country    | Country the card will be sold from             |
| item_state      | State the card will be sold from               |
| item_city       | City the card will be sold from                |
| card_year       | Year on the card                               |
| card_brand      | Name of the card manufacturer                  |
| card_singed     | If the card is an autographed card             |

The above data dictionary is not a representation of the initially scraped data but a representation of the data after data wrangling and feature engineering. Since there is an overwhelming number of lower-priced cards, only a limited number of cards below USD 100 were scraped while no limit was considered for higher priced cards.

Exploratory Data Analysis (EDA)

Price Analysis

Among cards listed, the highest-valued one goes for around $12.6 million, while the lowest stands at around $1 – but the average price is a whopping $9600. Of them, those under $1000 are especially popular among collectors and sellers, but as the value of these cards rises, the number of offers tends to drop, likely due to buyers being reluctant to fork out so much for a card, and of course, due to the mere fact that the rare, pricier cards are more difficult to locate.

Which card years has the most listings?

This year, 2020, has seen an abundance of cards available on the market, with newer cards appearing more often than older ones. It could be that the slightly older cards are more costly and harder to locate. However, the number of listings of cards from 2021 has droppped substantially, no doubt due to the inferiority of sports during and post pandemic.

Which year cards are most valuble?

Clearly, the vintage cards of 1925 really stand out in terms of their immense value! Each averages a whopping $1.5 million! It looks like older cards have more of an advantage, as the more recent years don’t even break the top pricest years for cards. Interesting spikes in the averages can be tracked back to exceptional players and iconic moments from 1913, 1924, 1932, and 1986.

Top Card Brands

Topps and Panini definitely have a stranglehold on the top trading cards market, with about 60% of the total listing on eBay. Bowman has a considerable stake in the industry, too. Even though it looks like Topps and Panini take the cake, it’s actually Fleer that commands the highest average card price. When you consider the other brands in the top ten by value, they hover around the $10,000 mark each, apart from Leaf and Fleer. So, you can see that Fleer is the king of card prices!

Which states are collectors hot spots?

There is a huge market for trading cards in the US. California leads the pack when it comes to ALT’s business opportunities in the US, followed by New York and Florida. But what about the neighbors up north in Canada? Wouldn’t they be a great market too?

Although Canada’s trading card market does not appear to be quite as bustling as America’s, Ontario and Quebec are the frontrunners in terms of trading card listings.These two provinces, in particular, can bring in a significant amount of profits for ALT, and their markets can also serve as a testing ground.

What are the most pursavasive reasons to buy trading cards?

The ease and simplicity of buying cards makes it much more likely for people to make a purchase. And when the card is in the same country as the buyer, it’s almost a sure thing! Plus, having the security of free shipping and a return policy often seals the deal. All in all, these benefits make it really attractive for buyers to go for the card they really want!

Autograph Cards market

It’s definitely worth investing in autographed cards - they’re much rarer (mere 5% of the listings are autographed cards) than regular cards, and their prices tend to be higher than regular cards. What’s more, their prices tend to remain relatively consistent, so you won’t find too many deals at low price points- but that just means that your investment is extra valuable.

Upper Deck is a great choice for anyone looking to invest in autographed cards; Topps, Panini, and Bowman may offer the most in terms of quantity on the eBay marketplace, but Upper Deck ranks among the top five for both quantity and price, boasting the highest average value for autographed cards.

Key Recommendations

  • The U.S. market has a strong stake in the card trading industry, with its top 10 states being American. Therefore, ALT has potential to reap greater benefits from investments compared to the Canadian market.

  • When it comes to Canada though, Ontario and Quebec are the major points of activity. For ALT to make a wider impact, they ought to consider clever marketing and promotions for targeting other regions in the country.

  • ALT could also draw more attention to their platform by acquiring desirable cards from popular brands such as Topps, Panini and Bowman. For the avid collectors, Upper Deck is a household brand, possessing a remarkable and costly average card price. This could present an agreeable investment opportunity for ALT.

  • By providing attractive deals like a good return policy and faster shipping, ALT could sway skeptical buyers to make the purchase.